2015 AUDUSD ANALYSIS

2015 AUDUSD ANALYSIS

The AUDUSD opened the year (2014) at 0.8650 and rose 0.9500 by April 2014. The trading range for the 4 quarters in 2014 are as follows:

Jan-March - 0.8500-0.9500
April-June - 0.9000-0.9500
July-Sept - 0.9500-0.8500- Strong bear
Oct-Date - 0.9000-0.8500– bearish continuation

What do I see? The price is back where it started in January 2014. The trend continued and 0.8000 was breached. The best strategy between now and the end of 2014 is to closely monitor 2000 pips in either direction from 0.9000 as follows:

For Bearish Run

0.9000-0.8500
0.8500-0.8000

0.8000-0.7500

0.7500-0-7000

For Bullish Reversal

0.9000-0.9500
0.9500-1.0000

The long-term picture from the monthly chart is that extended bearish run from 0.9000 since July 2014 is still intact. 0.7500 is now place to keep an eye on. 

Compare your current charts with monthly and weekly charts as at November 2014 below.

Attached Images (click to enlarge)

 

2015 EURUSD ANALYSIS

EURUSD 

The EURUSD opened the year (2014) at 1.3700 and fell 1.3500 in February. The trading range for the 4 quarters in 2014 are as follows:

Jan-March - 1.3500-1.4000
April-June - 1.3500-1.4000
July-Sept - 1.3500-1.2500- Strong bear
Oct-Date - 1.2500 -1.2350 – bearish continuation

What do I see? A race to the strong support at 1.2000 since 2006 is a strong possibility. The best strategy in 2015 to closely monitor 1500 pips in either direction from 1.2500 as follows:


For Bearish Run

1.2500-1.2000
1.2000-1.1500

1.1500-1.1000
For Bullish Reversal

1.2500-1.3000
1.3000-1.3500

The long-term picture from the monthly chart is that the price is extended bearish from 1.4000 since May 2014. 1.1000 is now the the place to watch

Compare the current monthly and weekly charts with the charts as at November 2014

Attached Images (click to enlarge)

 

2015 GBPUSD ANALYSIS

2015 GBPUSD ANALYSIS/UPDATE

The following analysis for November 2014 is still valid 

The GBPUSD opened the year at 1.6300. The trading range for the 4 quarters in 2014 as follows:

Jan-March - 1.6300-1.6800
April-June - 1.6800-1.7200
July-Sept - 1.7200-1.6300- Strong bear
Oct-Date - 1.6300 -1.5580 – bearish continuation

What do I see? 1.5300 is very close, while the strong resistance levels at 1.4800 and 1.4300 are far off. The best strategy between now and the end of 2014 is to closely monitor 1500 pips in either direction from 15800 as follows:

For Bearish Run

1.5800-1.5300
1.5300-1.4800
1.4800-1.4300

For Bullish Reversal

1.5800-1.6300
1.6300-1.6800
1.6800-1.7300

The long-term picture from the monthly chart is that the bullish run from 1.4800 in July 2013 was reversed in July 2014 and we are on extended bearish reversal since then. If 1.4800 support is broken by the monthly candle, then the reversal is complete.

ee the monthly and weekly charts below.

Attached Images (click to enlarge)

 

USDJPY 2015 UPDATE AND ANALYSIS

The USDJPY opened the year 2014 at 105 and dropped to 100 in February. The trading range for the 4 quarters in 2014 are as follows:

Jan-March - 100-105
April-June - 100-105
July-Sept - 100-110 – Strong bull
Oct-Date - 105-120? – Bullish continuation

What do I see? 125 is very close, while the strong resistance at 145 is not far off. The best strategy in 2015 to closely monitor 1500 pips in either direction from 120 as follows:


For Bullish Run

120-125
25-130
130-135

For Bearish Reversal

120-115
115-110
110-105

See the monthly and weekly charts as at November 2014 below.

Attached Images (click to enlarge)

 

Compare your current monthly and weekly charts with the charts I posted in November 2014.

GBPJPY 2015

GBPJPY 

The GBPJPY opened the year 2014 at 175 and dropped to 165 in February. The trading range for the 4 quarters in 2014 are as follows:

Jan-March - 165-175
April-June - 170-174
July-Sept - 170-180 – Strong bull
Oct-Date - 170-185? – Bullish continuation

There is the issue of the snap election in Japan and the dragon is on a strong bullish run since October. What do I see? 190 appears very close, while the strong resistance at 200 is not far off. The best strategy between now and the end of 2014 is to closely monitor 1500 pips in either direction from 185 as follows:

For Bullish Run

1. 185-190
2. 190-195
3. 195-200

For Bearish Reversal

1. 185-180
2. 180-175
3. 175-170

The long-term picture from the monthly chart is that the bullish run since 120 in June 2012 (over 6500 pips so far) is still intact.


The above levels I called in November 2014 are still intact. Compare your current monthly and weekly charts with my charts in November 2014.

See the weekly and monthly charts below.

Attached Images (click to enlarge)

 

EURUSD Masterchart Analysis

EURUSD 

The EURUSD opened the year at 1.3700 and fell 1.3500 in February. The trading range for the 4 quarters in 2014 are as follows:

Jan-March - 1.3500-1.4000
April-June - 1.3500-1.4000
July-Sept - 1.3500-1.2500- Strong bear
Oct-Date - 1.2500 -1.2350 – bearish continuation

What do I see? A race to the strong support at 1.2000 since 2006 is a strong possibility. The best strategy between now and the end of 2014 is to closely monitor 1000 pips in either direction from 1.2500 as follows:


For Bearish Run

1.2500-1.2000
1.2000-1.1500

1.1500-1.1000
For Bullish Reversal

1.2500-1.3000
1.3000-1.3500

The long-term picture from the monthly chart is that the price is extended bearish from 1.4000 since May 2014. 1.2000 is the place to watch. 

See the monthly and weekly charts below.

Attached Images (click to enlarge)

 

MONTHLY PRICE ACTION ANALYSIS (MPPA)

I will discuss monthly price action analysis in relation to the Masterchart for a better understanding of the forex market, I will post the monthly charts for the GBPUSD, GBPJPY, EURUSD, USDJPY and will use GBPUSD to explain what monthly price action analysis is all about.

Attached Thumbnails

 

Successes in forex trading could only be achieved if you have the bigger picture within your purview. To achieve this it is important to realise that you can only have a ‘helicopter view’ of the market in the higher time frames. The higher time frames provide useful insights into the trading parameters within a given period of time, which could be up to 2-4 years. With this knowledge it becomes easier to proceed to the lower time frames and trade confidently within the established boundary.

For a better understanding of the picture, we will now discuss, the Monthly Price Action Analysis (MPAA). As usual we will use the GBPUSD monthly to explain the MPAA for the period December 2008 – January 2012.

A closer observation of the monthly chart for GBPUSD will reveal the following facts:

a) If the cable begins a new year around the lowest point in a yearly circle, the point usually serve as a circle for a bullish run (rise in price)

b) If the cable begins a new year around the highest point in a yearly circle, the point usually serve as a circle for a bearish run (fall in price)

c) Price moves for the first 6 months (Jan-June), consolidates for the next 3 months (July-Sept), and closes for the last 3 months (Oct-Dec)

d) Price generally consolidate around the concrete zones

The question at this point is what is the usefulness of the above analysis in a simple language? The benefit of the MPAA is that the accounting year for the ‘big players’ (banks, hedge funds, investment outfits, etc) starts from January and ends in December. At the beginning of each year, depending on the fundamental factors, the big players push the price to a direction determined by fundamental factors (it doesn’t matter whether it is bull or bear). By the middle of the year, these players used the next three months see whether the bullish/bearish run will continue or not hence the consolidation around this period. These players use the last three months to take their profit and close their books for the year. The big players will never leave roll over their profit to another year. That is the monthly circle for the Cable.

What is then my view for 2013? I.5300 which has proved to be a very strong support on all time frames and most importantly the weekly candle since 2008 was eventually broken in February 2013. If the weekly candles fails to break above 1.5300 and the weekness of the Pound continues, a retest of the support at 1.430 is a strong possibility. You need to however follow one weekly candle at a time. 

I attach a weekly chart showing consolidation around the master charts levels. This area of weekly consolidation is where I called the concrete zone. The weekly charts can consolidate for up to three months. The consolidation area in the chart was between 1.5360 and 1.5780 (about 420 pips) and the Masterchart support is 1.530 until firstly, the body of a weekly candle closed outside and secondly a the body of a weekly candle opens and closes outside this level. A pin outside 1.530 is a false breakout.

What I am trying to do here is to explain this process and give you knowledge to apply it to any situation. To gain confidence in your analysis pick the chart for any currency pair e.g. EURUSD, GBPJPY, AUDUSD, and try the MPAA through this simple process:

Ø Identify where the prices on the monthly chart are in Dec/Jan over a period of 2-3 years
Ø Identify the highest and lowest point for 2-3 years
Ø Identify weekly chart price reaction around the concrete zone
Ø Identify the consolidation areas (concrete zone)