The following analysis for November 2014 is still valid
The GBPUSD opened the year at 1.6300. The trading range for the 4 quarters in 2014 as follows:
Jan-March - 1.6300-1.6800
April-June - 1.6800-1.7200
July-Sept - 1.7200-1.6300- Strong bear
Oct-Date - 1.6300 -1.5580 – bearish continuation
What do I see? 1.5300 is very close, while the strong resistance levels at 1.4800 and 1.4300 are far off. The best strategy between now and the end of 2014 is to closely monitor 1500 pips in either direction from 15800 as follows:
For Bearish Run
1.5800-1.5300
1.5300-1.4800
1.4800-1.4300
For Bullish Reversal
1.5800-1.6300
1.6300-1.6800
1.6800-1.7300
The long-term picture from the monthly chart is that the bullish run from 1.4800 in July 2013 was reversed in July 2014 and we are on extended bearish reversal since then. If 1.4800 support is broken by the monthly candle, then the reversal is complete.
Attached Images (click to enlarge)
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